Is the GOP Losing Evangelicals?

For some time, I've been saying that the GOP is about due for a split in the party (Coalition of the Barely Willing). It happens periodically with both parties, since both parties in a two party system are, by necessity, coalition parties. Ralph Nader to the contrary, it's the right coalition that's historically been the most fractious. When these coalitions become frayed, they're either repaired or they break. Signs show the GOP coalition is either breaking or on the verge of it.

Christian Science Monitor:

Evangelical superstar Rick Warren - author of the runaway bestseller "The Purpose Driven Life" - hosted an AIDS summit at his California megachurch. The keynoter? Sen. Barack Obama (D) of Illinois.

It's difficult to decide which is more astounding: a prominent evangelical pastor leading the fight against AIDS - a disease some Christian conservatives still tag as God's punishment for homosexuals - or a celebrated Democrat and possible 2008 presidential contender taking center stage at Mr. Warren's church. The Warren-Obama event reflects striking and welcome changes under way among America's 50 million Evangelicals, with potentially dynamic political consequences.

[...]

Although embryonic, a remarkable trend is emerging among Evangelicals today: the embrace of a social agenda that includes not only abortion and marriage, but poverty, AIDS, the environment, and human rights.

This sort of trend is going to put a bug up the butt of the business right and the neocon world-dom types. The environmentalism's going to turn off the former, a concern for human rights will be a problem for the latter, and neither's going to be willing to address global poverty.

Already, the GOP candidates are lining up to back the religious right line, with John McCain courting Jerry Falwell and Mitt Romney distancing himself from his earlier, somewhat saner, tolerance for lesbians and gays. But if the trend continues, this model of the perfect 'values voter' candidate will be obsolete in '08.

So something's got to break. Either the religious coalition that makes up the religious right splinters or the republican party loses them. Either way, the possiblity for a third party right candidate problem is very, very real.

A coalition of interests who are both true believers and extremists cannot last. Unless the GOP is willing to rethink its direction and repair its coalition, they'll wind up having to rebuild their party in 2008.

Tags: news | politics | elections | 2008 religious right | republican