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Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Griper Blade: Superstition, Folk Wisdom, BS, and Polling

I'm going to get hooked on these "two headlines" posts if I'm not careful. After all, I just wrote one yesterday. But this one was too good to pass up. The first headline is "Poll: Race not a big concern in election." Cool!

But then we read the second; "Race, Age Could Be Issues For Voters." Bummer.

Here's the fun part; they're both about the same damned poll! The first headline is from ABC's Chicago affiliate, the second from ABC Evening News. Go ahead and bang your head against your keyboard, I'll wait.

So which one's right? Here's a clue; which one's a definitive statement and which one hedges with "could?" ABC Evening News leaves out a snippet of information that would make their "Big trouble ahead!" headline problematic. The Chicago affiliate includes it:

The ABC News, Washington Post poll shows Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain 48 to 42 percent among adults expecting to vote.

McCain, however, leads Obama 51 percent to 39 among white voters, but analysts say, those numbers are not an indication of any racial motivations among white voters surveyed.

"The net effect, when you size them and put them together, is essentially nil. Obama's support among white voters, at the end of the day, is about the same as average for Democratic presidential candidates over the last eight elections," said ABC News Polling Director Gary Langer.


That's right, the Evening News story leaves out analysis by their own polling director. That's the problem with that TV machine -- most of the time, the stuff on it is designed to get you to watch the TV machine. They're going to give us a "tight race," even if they have to make one up...

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