Griper Blade: Election '08 a 'Tight Race?' Yeah, About That...

Barack Obama played the lower expectations card this weekend. "I am not sure that there is going to be some immediate political impact," he said of his eight day, eight nation tour last week. "I wouldn’t even be surprised if that in some polls that you saw a little bit of a dip as a consequence we have been out of the country for a week. People are worried about gas prices and home foreclosures."

There's really no danger of that and recent polling shows it. Gallup's Daily Tracking gave Obama a 9-point lead yesterday -- call it the "Berlin Bump." Daily tracking doesn't really mean much to me. It's a good way to track the immediate effects of news stories and new campaign strategies on the race, but it's not very predictive. Still, check this chart out:


Click for fullsized graphic

Notice how that dark green line is always above the other one? Keep in mind that graphic only represents the last couple of weeks, but I went searching for a general election poll that showed McCain ahead at any point -- I couldn't find one. Of course, I gave up after a certain point; you're welcome to try. Good luck with that...

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