A slight majority of California voters oppose a measure on the Nov. 4 ballot that would impose a constitutional ban on gay marriage, according to the first Field Poll on the measure. The findings released Thursday are consistent with a May poll on the issue before Proposition 8 qualified for the ballot. The issue has received heightened attention since the state Supreme Court in May struck down a law approved by voters in 2000 that banned gay marriages.
This time, Californians likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election were asked specifically about Proposition 8, which would enshrine in the state constitution that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. Fifty-one percent of respondents said they oppose the proposed ban; 42 percent support it; and 7 percent are undecided.
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The report calls this a "slight majority" and, in the strictest sense, it is. But do the math -- if the antis pick up all the undecideds, they still lose. This doesn't strike me as the sort of issue people would be squishy on -- if you've made up your mind, I don't see it changing. The antis are going to have to convert some of the pros and that's a tough order.
Still, November's a long way off. You never know.