No Blago-Effect on Obama Polling

clipped from www.fivethirtyeight.com With Rod Blagojevich facing the triple threats of impeachment, court-ordered removal from office, and a federal indictment, the tribulations of the Illinois Governor may yet prove to have an effect on Barack Obama's approval ratings -- but the early signs are that Blago will have no tangible impact on the public's perception of the President-elect. Indeed, with essentially three full days of interviewing having been conducted after Blagojevich's arrest on on Tuesday morning, Obama's approval ratings remain pristine. Gallup shows that 72 percent of the public has a favorable view of Obama, and 18 percent an unfavorable view. The 72 percent favorability rating matches the 72 percent score that Obama achieved on November 7th-9th for the highest since the election, whereas the 18 percent disapproval rating is Obama's lowest yet. Three days ago, before Blagojevich's arrest, those ratings were 70 percent and 21 percent, respectively.

So Obama's ratings are up after the scandal. I think that in our post-Bush era, Republicans are going to have a little problem -- Americans trust this guy and are more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Attempts to link Obama and Blagojevich are likely to fail. Republicans are going to have to stop relying on their opponent to screw up and are going to have to do something crazy -- be competent.