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Friday, August 21, 2009

Polling the Public Option

At the beginning of the week, healthcare reformers got a jolt of bad (or, at least, "baddish") news in the form of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that showed that 47% of respondents opposed the government-run public option, while 43% supported it. I pointed out that, considering the margin of error, this was a statistical near-tie -- which I took to mean the public was split on the idea. I also took comfort in the fact that neither side of the argument took the majority, so undecideds were still in play and could make the difference.

But then we started getting numbers that suggested the NBC/WSJ poll was screwy. For example, a poll by the reliably right-leaning Rasmussen:

Just 34% of voters nationwide support the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats if the so-called “public option” is removed. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 57% oppose the plan if it doesn’t include a government-run health insurance plan to compete with private insurers.


Then Nat Silver found an interesting nugget in the NBC/WSJ polling data:

Also, while just 36 percent believe Obama’s efforts to reform the health system are a good idea, that number increases to 53 percent when respondents were read a paragraph describing Obama’s plans.


OK, that's screwy. People have a screwed up idea of what the president's plans actually are. Not extremely surprising, since the right has made a cottage industry of misinforming the public with worries about death panels, seniors being kicked off Medicare, a "government takeover," and millions losing their coverage. The media, for the most part, treat these claims as if they had any basis in fact, as if lies and truth are simply a difference of opinion. As a result, "unbiased" reporting leaves people with the impression that Republican claims have some validity. If you say "President Obama's and the Democrats' reforms," you'll get one response -- based on all the misinformation and crap there is out there about them. But if you list what those reforms actually are, you get an entirely different -- i.e., more positive -- response... [CLICK TO READ FULL POST]

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