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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Too Bad to be True

You guys are going to think I've gone poll-happy today, but this was just so damned interesting I had to post it. Nat Silver finds a fascinating nugget of info in polling data (emphasis mine):

Probably stating the obvious here. But sometimes the obvious is worth stating. From the latest NBC/WSJ poll:

Also, while just 36 percent believe Obama’s efforts to reform the health system are a good idea, that number increases to 53 percent when respondents were read a paragraph describing Obama’s plans.


That's a 17-point gap in support for the Democrats' health care plans when the plan is simply referred to as "Barack Obama's health care plan" versus when a reasonably fair description of the plan is actually provided to the respondents. Whence the source of the discrepancy?

Majorities in the poll believe the plans would give health insurance coverage to illegal immigrants; would lead to a government takeover of the health system; and would use taxpayer dollars to pay for women to have abortions -- all claims that nonpartisan fact-checkers say are untrue about the legislation that has emerged so far from Congress.

Forty-five percent think the reform proposals would allow the government to make decisions about when to stop providing medical care for the elderly.


It's not extremely suprising that people opposed to reform are really opposed to the wingnut conspiracy-theorist's misrepresentation of it. It's incredibly depressing to me that so many people can be so stupid and gullible. People are always skeptical of things that seem too good to be true, but don't seem to recognize when claims are too bad to be true.

Still, health care reform as it actually exists is popular. So that's the good news. The trick is in getting the correct information to the people. The media has been absolutely no help here. They've been treating every crazy-assed thing some Republican or industry shill says as if it wasn't completely stupid on its face. As always, our news industry fails us very badly.

2 comments:

M said...

Two good examples of how a poll is misinterpreted:

Take a Gallup poll on the Death penalty. The majority of people support the death penalty(bloodthirsty bastards, right?), but the same majority says that life in prison without parole is a better policy than death.

On abortion, for the first time the Gallup poll shows a slim majority of responders consider themselves "pro-life," but when you go deeper in the same polling sample, 74% of the people said that abortion should accessible in "some cases" and "always."

23% thought it should be illegal under any circumstance.

The guy who ran on a platform of reforming healthcare won handily.

And I believe the way polls are being interpreted showing resentment are, for the most part, shallow and aesthetic.

vet said...

Well, how about the Democrats actually present a bill?

One bill. Not six, or ten, or however many it is - just one.

Then they can (e.g.) set up a website explaining exactly what is and isn't in it. People could look in and enter their own details and see how it would affect them, personally, and their grandma. And most importantly, people like you could explain what's in "the bill" without someone else immediately contradicting you by talking about a different version.

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