Unless you've been under a rock most of the day, you've most likely heard that two high-profile Democratic Senators -- Byron Dorgan and Chris Dodd -- aren't running for reelection.
A little perspective is in order. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post notes:
So Dorgan's seat is probably lost, but Republicans still have more seats to defend without incumbents. And, on the Dodd front, Greg Sargent gets the skinny from Public Policy Polling:
"No question, Byron Dorgan’s retirement is a big blow to Dems and in macro terms the spate of retirement news isn’t good for Dems," Sargent writes. "Nonetheless, these numbers seem pretty conclusive: Dodd’s retirement offsets Dorgan’s, barring an 'epic collapse.'"
So it's a wash on that point. I don't think anyone ever expected dems to hold that entirely theoretical "60 seat majority" in the first place and making gains -- at least from the perspective of where we stand now -- is out of the question. The best Democrats can hope for is limited losses and that seems to be the case with these two seats.
A little perspective is in order. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post notes:
...Dorgan was facing a potentially serious race in November against his state's popular Republican governor, John Hoeven. Senate strategists indicated that Hoeven was genuinely undecided about the race but that an open Senate seat in the Republican-leaning state -- North Dakota has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964 -- now makes it very likely that he will run.
Dorgan is the first Democratic senator to announce his retirement in 2010, while six Republican senators, from Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Missouri and New Hampshire, already have said they are not running for reelection this year.
So Dorgan's seat is probably lost, but Republicans still have more seats to defend without incumbents. And, on the Dodd front, Greg Sargent gets the skinny from Public Policy Polling:
Attorney General Richard Blumenthal leads all three of the Republicans in the race by at least 30 points in polling we conducted Monday and Tuesday night before Dodd’s announcement.
Blumenthal is unusually popular, especially in hyper-partisan times when voters like few politicians. 59% have a favorable opinion of him to just 19% who see him negatively. It’s no surprise that he’s liked by 71% of Democrats and 60% of independents, but even Republicans view him favorably by a 37/35 margin. It doesn’t take a lot of hands to count the number of Democratic politicians with positive numbers among GOP voters these days.
Blumenthal leads Rob Simmons 59-28, Linda McMahon 60-28, and Peter Schiff 63-23. It would take an epic collapse for him not to be Connecticut’s next Senator.
"No question, Byron Dorgan’s retirement is a big blow to Dems and in macro terms the spate of retirement news isn’t good for Dems," Sargent writes. "Nonetheless, these numbers seem pretty conclusive: Dodd’s retirement offsets Dorgan’s, barring an 'epic collapse.'"
So it's a wash on that point. I don't think anyone ever expected dems to hold that entirely theoretical "60 seat majority" in the first place and making gains -- at least from the perspective of where we stand now -- is out of the question. The best Democrats can hope for is limited losses and that seems to be the case with these two seats.
