Last night, a media narrative got a little dent. In a tight primary runoff election between Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter and incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln, the incumbent won. It was pretty close, but Lincoln managed to pull it out with just enough to avoid a recount -- 52.33% Lincoln to 47.67% Halter. If you're a mischievous type, here's a fun project; go around to rightwing blogs' and columnists' comment threads and point out that what they're calling a "narrow win" in the Arkansas Democratic primary is pretty much equal to the mandate-giving decisive vote they claimed for Bush in 2004 -- in fact, Lincoln's win is probably slightly wider. If you were a Halter backer, making wingnut heads explode might take a little bit of the edge of your loss. Go ahead and thank me later.
But if Blanche's win puts a dent in the "bad year for incumbents" story, it by no means kills it. Turns out this whole thing is a rule, not a law. And the exception doesn't disprove the rule. So we'll probably hear a lot of chatter about why it's an exception, but I don't expect the common wisdom's going to change much here. And it probably shouldn't. But here's an interesting question; if this "anti-incumbent year" story pans out in the primaries, wouldn't that have some effect on the general? What's the impact of an anti-incumbent trend on elections where the incumbent has already fallen victim to it? Watch for possible answers to those questions as Lincoln faces general election. As an incumbent who's bucked the trend in a primary, she's just become the control group in this little experiment...[CLICK TO READ FULL POST]
But if Blanche's win puts a dent in the "bad year for incumbents" story, it by no means kills it. Turns out this whole thing is a rule, not a law. And the exception doesn't disprove the rule. So we'll probably hear a lot of chatter about why it's an exception, but I don't expect the common wisdom's going to change much here. And it probably shouldn't. But here's an interesting question; if this "anti-incumbent year" story pans out in the primaries, wouldn't that have some effect on the general? What's the impact of an anti-incumbent trend on elections where the incumbent has already fallen victim to it? Watch for possible answers to those questions as Lincoln faces general election. As an incumbent who's bucked the trend in a primary, she's just become the control group in this little experiment...[CLICK TO READ FULL POST]
