Stories to Watch: 11/1/10

Tomorrow's the big day. Keep your fingers crossed and, whatever happens, it's not the end of the world. This democracy thing is a work in constant progress (and sometimes regress), so it never creates a finished product. Don't go home; get back to work, because you're never done. Of course, if you want to get hammered on tequila shooters first, that's probably a good idea too. Now here's the news...


ABC's decision to include Andrew Breitbart in their election night coverage turns out to be a huge headache, because Andy's an ass. Here's hoping that they find him to be more trouble than he's worth in the future.


In case you were wondering where your fucking polling place is, you can find it here.


Politico reports that Sarah Palin is about to be thrown under the bus, because there's a real danger she could win a Republican presidential primary and hand reelection to Obama on a silver platter. This is bad PR, so top Republican presidential prospects -- i.e., her competition -- line up to say, "No, no, no. I totally want Sarah to be president!" Except, of course, they don't. They want to be president.


Jeb Bush says something true. "The looming victories for Republican candidates next Tuesday is not a validation of the Republican Party at all." Scott Rasmussen agrees (although, while making some crazy arguments). Don't expect the GOP to get the message.


Who could blame a newly-minted Independent Lisa Murkowski for being squishy on caucusing with Republicans? Maybe she's keeping her options open.


Colorado gubernatorial hopeful Tom Tancredo wants war with Islam. What's it take to have someone committed in Colorado? Anyone know?


Finally, Steve Benen will not miss Evan Bayh. I'll drink to that.

News Roundup for 11/1/10

These people are sane

-Headline of the Day-
"Jon Stewart Rally Attracts Estimated 215,000."

OK, now that's impressive. CBS News hired the same firm, AirPhotosLive.com, to estimate crowd size that they hired for the big Beck rally. The result? Beck's 87,000 is 40% of what turned out for the Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear. If you're interested in the complex methodolgy used to determine the crowd sizes, CBS posted that very unexciting information here.

In fact, the crowd was so large that local DC news site TBD reported, "Massive turnout for Saturday's rally quickly overwhelmed the Mall, forcing thousands of people into nearby streets and eventually, just giving up and leaving." This turned out to be a boon for local bars, where the live feed was no doubt running on plenty of TVs.

"The normally spacious bar at Clyde's quickly became standing room only. A line formed on the sidewalk to get inside the Iron Horse Tap Room," TBD says. "By 2 p.m., the wait for a table for four at Carmine's was at least an hour."

Watching the rally from a block or two away over a few cold ones and a plate of chicken wings? Now that's sanity. (CBS News)


-"I have a memory"-
From the "people don't vote for things, people vote against things" file and an organization, the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, who get it.

Seriously great. Seriously. (YouTube)


-Bonus HotD-
"O'Donnell accuses station of 'forgetting' to air her campaign ads."

Wow. Christine O'Donnell shot a half-hour closing argument for the elections and it never aired. Why? According to Christine, "We are told channel 28 'forgot' to air it...both times... even though we paid for the time slot last week." This seemed kind of unlikely, because it's not like TV stations scratch out their schedules on an Etch-A-Sketch or something -- "Oh crap, we forgot to run Two and a Half Men again! Who bumped this thing?" They've got computers and everything.

Turns out, it was Christine who forgot -- to pay.

You guys in Delaware are really dodging a bullet on this one. I'm sure that TV spot would've totally clinched the election for her. (The Hill)

Feingold Finishes Positive

Here ya go. Last Feingold ad of the season.

RUSS!!

Criticism of the Media is More than Fair

Here's a surprise: the media doesn't like Jon Stewart's criticism of the media all that much.

David Carr, New York Times:

Distrust of the media was laid down throughout the rally by video montages of ranting broadcast bobble heads. Even with the vast gulf between their faux respective beliefs, Mr. Stewart and his co-host, Stephen Colbert, found common ground in the failings of the press. Mr. Colbert awarded some media outlets a medal for helping keep fear alive; Mr. Stewart gave out his awards to average Americans who go about their business every day in lives built on compromise and comity.

“We work together to get things done every damn day! The only place we don’t is here,” he said, gesturing toward the Capitol, “or on cable TV.”

Carr's column is titled, "Rally to Shift the Blame." See, it's just unfair to criticize cable news media because no one watches it.

Yet polling shows that the average voter doesn't know they got a tax cut and doesn't know basic economic facts. If the media -- TV or not -- were worth a damn, this wouldn't be the case. When people are so poorly informed, you've kind of got to suspect that there's something wrong with an industry whose job is to inform people. This doesn't strike me as extremely unreasonable.

And, while I agree that cable news doesn't get nearly the viewers everyone pretends they do, network news isn't any better. And print media is deeply flawed as well. Part of the problem is that, because of fear of charges of bias, American media exists in a largely fact-free bubble where everything -- even well-documented facts -- are treated as a matter of opinion. If one candidate or pundit says one and one are two, while another says the equations works out to three, the media approaches it as "some say it's two, some say it's three: we'll look at the controversy." Liars and lunatics are presented as being just as credible as the people with the facts. And, as a result, you've got an electorate left in ignorance. So they choose which "facts" they're most comfortable believing. Reporting facts is left to partisans, so it appears to be spin.

To say that criticism of this approach to journalism is "shifting the blame" is ridiculous. This argument needs to die and be buried with a stake through its heart.

Griper Blade: Get Out The Vote

This is my last long form post before election day and my last report on phonebanking for Wisconsin Democrats. Right now, I'm watching Rep. Chris Van Hollen, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, defend his prediction that dems will retain their majority in the House of Representatives on MSNBC. But Van Hollen is engaging in punditry -- there's little evidence to back up his claim, other than stronger than normal turnout among Democrats in early voting. But that higher early turnout is to be expected. News that the GOP-supporting business groups had planned a $75 million dark money push in the final days of the campaign caused Democrats to push early voting -- i.e., "vote now, before a wave of attack ads change your mind." Because of this last-minute push, Republicans didn't want people to vote early -- or, at least, not as badly as they might in another cycle. Still, it might make the difference in many races.

Gallup reports that "52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions." And everyone agrees that turnout is the key. The danger of lower turnout here is not only a Democratic concern; some Republicans may be so convinced of the inevitability of the "big Republican wave" that they think they needn't bother. Call it the "Tortoise and the Hare scenario." This also may make a difference.

Yesterday, I spent a couple hours on the phone at the teachers' union hall here in Madison. My contacts were mostly positive and the campaign is focusing on Get Out The Vote efforts. If turnout is the key, then turnout is the top job. Democrats seem to feel that a 4% increase in projected turnout in key districts will be enough to pull it out for both incumbent Senator Russ Feingold and gubernatorial hopeful Tom Barrett. My guess on which districts these are: Madison and Milwaukee. Wisconsin Democrats have a larger team of volunteers than in any other state, thanks in part to efforts by MoveOn.org...[CLICK TO READ FULL POST]