The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling. As of yesterday, Republicans made up only 22% of early voters and 30% of returned absentee votes.
This is closer to (and worse than) 2008 where we saw 19% EV and 38% of the absentees. 2010 (our blowout year) was 33% of EV and 45% of AB.
Conclusion: the Democrat turnout machine in the county has been very effective and they are cleaning our clock. Even if Romney win the state (likely based on polls), the turnout deficit in PBC will affect our local races.
NET: when you are calling or canvassing, remind people how effective our opposition has been and how they must not only get themselves to the polls but their friends and neighbors as well.
As the memo states, it’s unlikely that President Obama will be able to poach Florida from Romney, but the turnout edge is a problem in down-ticket races. It may be that the Sunshine State goes blue in most ways that actually matter, while going red in support of a losing GOP candidate. Florida Republicans might’ve been wiser to not to put all their eggs in the Romney basket and instead spread out their risk. But it’s probably too late to correct that mistake now.