One place you’ll find a consensus on who did the best last night is among the least partisan and most independent predictors — bookies and people playing prediction markets.
…During the course of the night, at three sites where participants essentially bet on who will win [the election], shifts in wagering reflected the fact that the perceived odds in favor of Obama winning election were rising.
The votes on well-known political betting site Intrade.com reflected a jump in the president’s chances from 61.7 percent just before the debate to 64.1 percent shortly afterward.
Similar jumps could be seen in other markets, too. At the betting site Betfair.com, the president’s chances jumped 2.7 percentage points during that period, and on the Iowa Electronic Markets, run out of the University of Iowa, his chances were up about 2.4 percentage points in that time frame.
So president Obama won the debate and managed to turn things around a bit. If Mitt Romney really ever had any momentum (and I have my doubts), it’s gone now. It’ll be a few days before this is confirmed by polling, but prediction markets really are the least biased predictors out there — they don’t give a crap who wins, they’re just trying to make money by betting on the right horse.
