The news of the morning is that House Republicans, at their retreat, are seriously weighing whether to agree to a short term debt limit increase. The idea appears to be that this would defer default and let Republicans stage another battle to get the spending cuts they want in a couple of months, when the deadline for the sequester looms.
At that point, the threat of default would again loom and again enter into the discussions somehow. But make no mistake: this is a major cave. It is further indication that the GOP simply isn’t willing to allow default. It reveals yet again that this whole debt ceiling hostage taking strategy is proving a major failure: After all, if you’re not willing to default, then you’re admitting the debt ceiling doesn’t give you any leverage. So why threaten to use it to get what you want in a couple of months? How will things be any different then?
As Jonathan Chait puts it: “You have to ask yourself what the point is. If Republicans can’t threaten to shoot the hostage, what do they gain by holding new debt ceiling votes every few months? It’s either leverage or it isn’t.” The willingness to adopt a short term increase confirms that it isn’t.
Sen. John Cornyn also could not resist tipping his hand, saying, “We will raise the debt ceiling. We’re not going to default on our debt… I will tell you unequivocally, we’re not going to default.”
The reason for the kick-the-can-down-the-road three month extension is that Republicans can’t think of anything else to do. At the moment, their approvals are tanking. Among dems and indies, they’re pretty much bottomed out. But they’re crashing among Republican voters, which is what’s bringing them down further. GOPers aren’t happy that the party caved on the fiscal cliff — meaning they won’t be too happy about caving on the debt limit either. The GOP is in one of those “damned if you do and damned if you don’t” situations — there literally is no option available to them that won’t drag down their approvals.
So they want to delay the game and hope something happens that will haul them out of this hole. In short, the GOP strategy here is to cross their fingers and hope for the best. There really is nothing else they can do.
