Charlie Cook:
Red-faced Republicans, circling and preparing to pounce on a
second-term Democratic president they loathe, do not respect, and
certainly do not fear. Sound familiar? Perhaps reminiscent of Bill
Clinton’s second term, after the Monica Lewinsky story broke? During
that time, Republicans became so consumed by their hatred of Clinton and
their conviction that this event would bring him down that they
convinced themselves the rest of the country was just as outraged by his
behavior as they were. By the way, what was Clinton’s lowest Gallup
job-approval rating in his second term, throughout the travails of
investigations and impeachment? It was 53 percent. The conservative echo
machine had worked itself into such a frenzy, the GOP didn’t realize
that the outrage was largely confined to the ranks of those who never
voted for Clinton anyway.
These days, the country is even
more polarized, and the conservative echo chamber is louder than ever
before. Many conservatives made it all the way to Election Day last
November unaware that their White House nominee was falling short. How
could Mitt Romney possibly lose when everyone they knew was voting for
him? Except that he did lose, and it wasn’t even a very close race. Five
other post-World War II presidential elections had closer outcomes.
The simple fact is that although the Republican sharks are circling,
at least so far, there isn’t a trace of blood in the water. A new
CNN/ORC survey of 923 Americans this past Friday and Saturday, May
17-18, pegged Obama’s job-approval rating at 53 percent, up a
statistically insignificant 2 points since their last poll, April 5-7,
which was taken before the Benghazi, IRS, and AP-wiretap stories came to
dominate the news and congressional hearing rooms. His disapproval
rating was down 2 points since that last survey.
This is all very correct, but what really got my attention was the bit
about polarization and “the conservative echo chamber.” Republicans have
become so reliant on wedge issue politics over the years that they seem
to have no idea how to operate without them. In fact, it seems to have
become reflexive — they don’t even know they’re doing it.
Meanwhile, all the wedges are turning against them. But they don’t seem
to be able to stop. And here again, we see a different sort of wedge
that’s working just as poorly, but Republicans are so invested in in
that they can’t stop.
Part of the problem is that the base takes these wedge issues extremely seriously. Republican voters believe that Benghazi is
literally the worst thing ever, for example. When you have your
marks
constituents whipped up into that sort of a frenzy, you can’t just drop
it when it’s not working for you. You’re pretty much committed to the
issue, whether it’s a good idea or not. And it’s like that across the
board; abortion is the Holocaust, gay marriage will destroy the family,
undocumented immigrants are taking over America, etc. By amping
everything up to eleven, they set themselves on courses they can’t
reverse from — ever. If you drop the issue, the voters you’ve driven
into a panic over it won’t show up at the polls.
And so now
they find themselves screwed by their own outsized hatred of Barack
Obama. The base literally believes he’s a Hitler in the making, so they
can’t ever stop attacking him; even when it’s screwing them in the
polls.
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photo via Wikimedia Commons]