Romney supporter took war with reality to a whole new level

Buzzfeed: One trader lost at least $4 million betting on former presidential candidate Mitt Romney through Intrade, possibly to make it appear he was faring better against President Barack Obama in the waning days and hours of the 2012 election than he was.

That’s what a new study by Microsoft Research’s David Rothschild and Columbia University’s Rajiv Sethi suggests. The study, published earlier this month, analyzed Intrade transaction level data over the course of the final two weeks of the election cycle.

[…]

Rothschild and Sethi found that a single trader accounted for one-third of all bets made on Romney during the two week period of the study, which saw about 3.5 million contracts traded. The total election cycle had 7.6 million contracts traded.

The trader bet solely on Romney and constantly sold on Obama, losing about $4 million in the process.

I’ve been thinking off and on about how conservatives often confuse cause and effect. Most recently, the example that’s come up most often has been the argument that violent video games cause mass shootings. But wouldn’t the sort of person who’d commit that sort of crime be attracted to violent video games in the same way that someone who likes boobs enjoys porn? If video games were responsible for crime, there’d be one helluva lot more murderous loons out there shooting up crowds of people. It’s like saying chess is responsible for war.

But this… this is a whole ‘nother ballgame. This is magical thinking. The problem with doing this is the same problem you have with putting out deliberately biased polling; you can’t lie to people about what they think. People knew who they were going to vote for. If you tell them otherwise, how can you expect them to believe you? Polls do influence polls, but this is just some form of sympathetic magic.

I’m at a loss. All I can say is that Mr. Mystery here is probably someone who blew a chunk of their inheritance — because it’s so freakin’ obvious that they weren’t smart enough to earn that kind of money themselves.

Mitt's Tax Day

From hero to zero: Romney CPAC appearance anticipated with yawns

Politico:

Indifference awaits Mitt Romney Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference as he delivers his first public speech since election night.

The base moved on four months ago, and most Republican activists don’t really care what their failed nominee thinks any more.

The apathy that pervades the halls at the Maryland resort hosting the meeting is born not so much from hostility as a desire to turn the page.

During the heat of the 2012 primaries, CPAC is where Romney described himself as a “severely conservative governor” in an ad-libbed effort to shore up his right flank that only raised fresh doubts about his authenticity.

“He’s kind of last year. I’m ready for some new blood,” said Laurie Pettengill, 55, a former New Hampshire state representative. “The Beltway doesn’t want to let go of a lot of things … You shake your head and say, ‘C’mon!’”

Of course, you have to imagine a lot of this stems from the perception that Mittens let them down. But the big let-down they all felt on election night wasn’t entirely Romney’s fault. They’d all bought into this stupid “unskewed polls” thing and they were convinced that Mitt was a shoe-in. When reality failed to join in and make wishful thinking fact, it was time to start giving Mitt the old cold shoulder.

Granted, there was plenty wrong with the Romney campaign, but what was wrong with it was exactly the sorts of things the sort of people who attend CPAC demanded; the bass-ackward economic policies, the immigrant bashing, the gay bashing, War on Women frootloopery, an environmental policy so contrary that it practically rewarded pollution, etc. Mitt lost because he decided to lead these fools by following them — and now they blame him for arriving at where he was led.

[photo via Gage Skidmore]

The Willard Scott equation

It looks like Mitt Romney’s brother Scott is considering running to fill the senate seat left open by retiring Michigan Senator Carl Levin.

Since Mitt’s real name is Willard and his brother is named Scott, if you add the two together you get Willard Scott, former Today Show weatherman and the original Ronald McDonald, as my handy chart demonstrates.

Seems about right. Math doesn’t lie.

Romney admits to telling people what they wanted to hear

It’s a weird coincidence. The same day I came across the old and arcane political word “snollygoster,” I come across the perfect example of one. According to Taegan Goddard’s Political Dictionary, a snollygoster is:

A politician who will go to any lengths to win public office, regardless of party affiliation or platform.

Mitt Romney is most definitely a snollygoster.

Business Insider:

Mitt Romney gave his first extensive postmortem interview Sunday after his 2012 election loss, appearing on “Fox News Sunday” alongside his wife, Ann.

Fox News host Chris Wallace asked Romney to explain what many saw as the downfall of his campaign — the leaked comments about the so-called “47 percent.” In trying to explain them away, he might have revealed why he really lost.

Romney told Wallace that it was a “very unfortunate statement that I made.”

“You know, when you speak in private, you don’t spend as much time thinking about how something could be twisted and distorted, and it could come out wrong and be used,” Romney said.

“But, you know, it did. And it was very harmful. What I said is not what I believe.”

This may or may not be true. It may be that Mittens is just display an emotion rarely seen in modern Republicans: shame — although, that’s not a bet I’d place. But one thing’s for sure, that collection of gold-plated elites he was speaking to sure believed it. So that’s what he told them. Because he’d tell anyone anything to get elected.

BI’s Brett LoGiurato goes on to quote The American Conservative’s Daniel Larison on Mitt’s honesty — and Larison is scathing:

[I]t never mattered whether Romney “really” believed what he was saying, because it became clear years ago that he would have said almost anything to win. In that case, it was a good bet that Romney was always more likely to lie to his audience than not, and for that reason he disqualified himself through sheer, overwhelming dishonesty. When in doubt, it was safe to assume that Romney was lying, and it was usually safe to assume the worst about his intentions. If there was a chance that he might cave in to hard-liners and ideologues in his party, there was no reason to believe that he would ever stand up to them. When the 47% remarks came out, it didn’t matter whether he believed what he had said, because he had been willing to say it and he had done so because he was so desperate to appeal to the worst elements in his party.

A snollygoster, ladies and gentleman. In the truest sense of the word. Thank whatever force it is that you believe in that Mitt Romney lost.

[image via DonkeyHotey]

Chrysler workers get big holiday bonus

Detroit News:

Chrysler Group LLC’s 26,000 U.S. factory workers will be receiving $1,750 bonus checks on Dec. 21 — the second half of their bonus for signing the contract between the company and the United Auto Workers in 2011.

While workers at General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. received their full signing bonuses up front, Chrysler workers only received half of their $3,500 last year. The rest was payable when the company, which went bankrupt in 2009, achieved “sustained profitability” for four consecutive quarters.

The $381 million third-quarter profit that Chrysler reported in October represented the third straight quarter of profits for the company. Fourth quarter results are not due out until January. But Chrysler said Friday it is waiving the requirement and paying the bonuses now.

[…]

“We appreciate [CEO Sergio Marchionne] and Chrysler’s willingness to recognize the contributions of our members at this time of the year,” said UAW Vice President General Holiefield, head of the union’s Chrysler division, adding that the money will help a lot of other people besides Chrysler workers.

“It doesn’t just benefit them,” he said. “They will spend that money in their communities, providing a well-needed boost to local economies.”

Was it just weeks ago that Mitt Romney was saying the auto bailout left Chrysler in such shambles that it was forced to move some production jobs overseas?

Why yes. Yes it was.

Romney’s final gaffe turns Lindsey Graham all commie

Raw Story:

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Sunday pleaded with former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney to “stop digging” by insulting Hispanic voters because the party was already in a “death spiral.”

In a conference call with donors last week, Romney suggested that he lost his bid for the White House because president Barack Obama bribed Hispanics, African-Americans, women and youth voters with “gifts” like “free health care” and “amnesty for children of illegals.”

“We’re in a big hole [and] we’re not getting out of it by comments like that,” Graham told NBC’s David Gregory on Sunday. “When you’re in a hole, stop digging. He keeps digging.”

“Self deportation being pushed by Mitt Romney hurt our chances,” Graham went on. “We’re in a death spiral with Hispanic voters because of rhetoric around immigration and candidate Romney in the primary dug the hole deeper.”

All of this is suddenly very mainstream GOP, by the way, and Graham’s actually been at roughly this position for some time. But in addressing Romney’s rehashing of his 47% comments, Graham seems to suddenly have been struck sane.

“Most people who are on public assistance don’t have a character flaw,” he said, “they just have a tough life.”

That is most definitely not the GOP mainstream. Republicans have been arguing for some time now that people embrace poverty because it’s such a sweet deal; you don’t pay income taxes, you get “handouts,” etc — all because Democrats are bribing you to vote for them. If you need to brush up on all this, read up on the two Santa Clauses theory. This all goes way back to 1974, so Mitt wasn’t saying anything new, he just explained things way too explicitly for most Republicans’ liking.

What Lindsey Graham is pushing here is reality; most poor people are impoverished by no fault of their own. I doubt many on the right will appreciate that, because reality has a well-established liberal bias.

Big Bird has the last laugh

Milt Priggee, Cagle Cartoons, http://www.miltpriggee.com

Mitt’s final gaffe is causing trouble for Republicans

ThinkProgress:

Republican governors Bobby Jindal (LA) and Scott Walker (WI) spoke out against Mitt Romney’s claim that Obama won because he gave minorities and young people “big gifts” in the form of Obamacare, his DREAM directive, and partial college loan forgiveness. At the Republican Governors Association meeting in Las Vegas on Wednesday, Jindal called the statement “absolutely wrong,” saying, “I absolutely reject that notion.” Walker, who was on a panel with Jindal when he denounced Romney, agreed that the GOP isn’t “just for people who are currently not dependent on the government. It’s for all Americans.”

Both governors, who were Romney surrogates, stayed quiet during Romney’s earlier iteration of this idea, when he told donors that 47 percent of Americans “believe they are victims” and will never “take personal responsibility.” Walker ducked the controversy at the time, saying “That’s a statement he has to take on, not myself.” Jindal also deferred judgment, refusing to “be one of these political pundits.”

But after a definitive loss down the ticket on Election Night, Republicans are doing some “brutally honest” soul-searching about the future of their party. Jindal was especially outspoken, imploring the GOP to “stop being the stupid party.” He was blunt in his newfound criticism for Romney in an interview with Politico…

The problem with Mitt’s gaffe is that the base is finding it way too easy to believe it. And if the base likes it, the conservative media will like it — and then things start to get out of hand. There’s a reason why Jindal teamed up with Walker to smack down Romney — Walker’s still a big hero on the right. If it comes down to who’s more influential, Walker or Romney, they’re hoping the base will choose Walker.

And in any logical setting they would. Walker’s a success story and Romney’s a failure. But Republicans and conservative media have foolishly trained Republican voters to believe whatever’s most comforting, logic and facts be damned. They may not be able to stem this self-destructive talking point, in the end. It may go viral, like the rape-theorizing after Todd Akin’s idiocy. In that case, it was defense of a position that outraged liberals that moved other rape commenters forward. The same may happen here.

In Wisconsin, all is not good news

Associated Press:

Wisconsin Republicans have retaken full control of state government, winning majorities in both the Senate and Assembly and erasing Democrats’ gains in last summer’s recalls.

Results from Tuesday’s elections show Republicans captured an open Senate seat and four incumbent GOP senators fended off challengers, allowing them to capture the majority, and their colleagues in the Assembly easily held onto their advantage in that chamber.

With Republican Gov. Scott Walker in office, the GOP now has complete control in Madison. And the ramifications are huge: Republicans will be able to pass legislation without a single vote from Democrats and Walker should be able to push through the next state budget with ease, setting himself up for his 2014 re-election bid.

Still, the governor was careful not to alienate Democrats on Tuesday night.

“I look forward to working with members of both parties to grow our economy and create jobs,’’ Walker said in a statement.

>>READ MORE>>

My electoral prediction

OBAMA: 303 - Romney: 235

Arrived at through the rigorous process of giving Mittens the benefit of the doubt in Florida. If I’m wrong there, it’ll be 332 O to 206 R.

Agree? Disagree? Use this interactive map to draw out your own prediction.

Blaming Sandy for Romney’s downfall doesn’t jibe with reality

The Republican candidate was doing a fine job of falling in the polls before the superstorm showed up.

[image source]

Mitt Romney shakes the Etch-A-Sketch on FEMA

Talking Points Memo:

With a huge swath of the country digging out from a terrible storm, Mitt Romney seems to have found new respect for FEMA.

When Hurricane Sandy devastated the Eastern Seaboard just days ahead of the 2012 election, disaster relief became a campaign issue overnight — and one that presented a challenge to Romney. While the storm offered President Obama photo-ops and praise from Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Romney has struggled to carve out his own position on the federal government’s role in disaster relief efforts.

After arguing during the Republican primary that the states should oversee disaster relief efforts, the Romney campaign this week has been slowly carving out a position that does not ignore the federal government’s role. The most clarifying comment on disaster relief came late Wednesday in a statement to CBS News.

“I believe that FEMA plays a key role in working with states and localities to prepare for and respond to natural disasters,” Romney said in a statement from his campaign. “As president, I will ensure FEMA has the funding it needs to fulfill its mission, while directing maximum resources to the first responders who work tirelessly to help those in need, because states and localities are in the best position to get aid to the individuals and communities affected by natural disasters.”

But Romney’s emphasis on the role of government is new to his position on disaster relief.

»READ MORE»

Suddenly, Romney seems worried about Florida

CNN:

A television ad from Mitt Romney’s campaign airing in Miami pegs President Barack Obama to Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro, notorious dictators widely reviled among Cuban Americans.

The ad spotlights endorsements from Chavez and Raul Castro’s daughter Mariela, who both said they would vote for Obama if they could. According to ad-tracker CMAG, the spot aired Tuesday.

“Who supports Barack Obama?” a narrator asks in Spanish before clips of the two endorsements run.

When it comes to the embarrassing endorsement game, Mitt’s clearly the winner by a country mile — by virtue of actively seeking the endorsement of a white supremacist. Romney’s accusing Obama of guilt by association, for getting “endorsements” he never sought. Meanwhile, Mitt’s trying to get known racists to back him. This isn’t a contest that Romney should be eager to have.

But what does this say about Romney’s confidence in Florida. At a time when he’s supposedly “expanding the map” by running token ads in states he can’t possibly win, here he is shoring up what — until recently — looked like a fairly safe bet for him. That doesn’t signal good news for Romney. Ohio is the clincher right now, but it only has 18 electoral college votes. Florida has 29. Without Florida, it’s game over for Romney.

With Surrogates Like These...

(via Cartoon Politics)

Mittmentum?

Hello?

David Kurtz, Talking Points Memo:

NYT/CBS: Obama up 5 points in Ohio, 2 points in Virginia, and 1 point in Florida.

Franklin & Marshall College: Obama up 4 points in Pennsylvania.

PPP: Obama up by 5 in Wisconsin and in Iowa.

You shouldn’t read too much into single polls, but when a bunch of random state polls come in and they all look like this, you can stop using the word “surging” to describe your campaign.

Yes, Romney’s ‘storm relief events’ are fake

Raw Story:

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney on Tuesday claimed that he had stopped campaigning due to Hurricane Sandy and instead was holding so-called “storm relief events” where campaign advertisements were played for attendees.

Romney, along with his wife, Ann, and vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, stopped by campaign offices and attended events in the swing state of Ohio just a day after the hurricane devastated much of the east coast.

“Campaign video playing at ‘storm relief event’ – there is an area roped off for supplies,” USA Today‘s Jackie Kucinich tweeted along with a photo.

New York Times political reporter Michael Barbaro noted that a sign at the Trent Arena in Kettering called the event a “Republican Campaign Rally.”

NPR White House Correspondent Ari Shapiro tweeted a photo of press badge, which referred to the “storm relief event” in Dayton as a “victory rally.”

Don’t say I didn’t tell you so. How predictable is this? Mitt Romney is so shameless that there’s literally nothing he won’t lie about.

The question is how long it’ll take the media to catch up to reality. So far, they’re all sticking with the “both campaigns have suspended electioneering” bullshit.

Mitt's hurricane advice

(via Photo by chuysman • Instagram)

Sununu on race

Source: mattbors.com

What if I told you there was no 'Mittmentum?'

Team Romney Theater: All this momentum — really! Look how excited we are! Landslide!!

NYTimes.com: “Cultivating the image that he is a winner, his aides say, could be Mr. Romney’s best strategy for actually winning.”

Mark Blumenthal: “While the [first] debate certainly boosted Romney’s standing in the polls, trends over the past two weeks have been negligible, with the leader seesawing nationally within a range of roughly one percentage point. Over the same period, the standings within the key battleground states have also remained constant. Other poll tracking models have shown the same patterns.”

Robert Wright: Romney Momentum Update: Still Zilch (at Best): “Yesterday I noted that, with two days of post-debate tracking poll results now in, it was starting to look as if that final presidential debate had killed the momentum Mitt Romney seemed to have going into it. Now, with three days of tracking poll results in, things look, if anything, a bit worse for Romney than they looked yesterday.”

Brendan Nyhan: The momentum behind a misleading narrative: “The notion that Romney still had “momentum” weeks after his early October gains in the polls has now been debunked by numerous commentators and academics. And while that pushback is increasingly reflected in campaign-trail accounts, it is worth taking a closer look at why coverage of Romney’s “momentum” went wrong and what it tells us about the weaknesses of campaign journalism.”

[via Under The Mountain Bunker]