Griper Blade: The Important States of America

The question going into the elections in Pennsylvania today isn't who'll win, but whether it'll make any difference. With most polls showing a tight race, the best either campaign can do is to try to spin what's almost certain to be a near tie. A win -- likely by Clinton -- will be nothing to write home about, percentage-wise.

For their part, the Clinton campaign have been trying to create a meme that delegates don't actually count, it's the states you win that count. Apparently, there are relevant states and irrelevant states -- relevancy seems to be measured by which states Clinton won. "The big states" that a Democrat has to win have gone to Clinton, the argument goes, so she's in the best position to win in November. This argument makes perfect sense.

Unless, of course, you refrain from lobotomizing yourself with an ice cream scoop. If you leave your brain intact, it doesn't make any damned sense at all.

Think back to the 2004 elections. There were these things called "battleground states" or "swing states." How many of these swing states were the big ones? Not many. According to the New York Times, the swing states were Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire. Of those, Clinton has won Ohio, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Florida. The problem here is that Michigan and Florida don't count -- neither was a real contest. Obama has won Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

The argument that Clinton won all the "important states" and therefore is entitled to run for "President of the Important States of America" dies there. If you measure "important state" more realistically, Obama won more of those states' delegates. Meanwhile, Clinton's "big states" are a mix of sure dem wins, sure dem losses, and toss ups. Winning New York, for example, doesn't mean a damned thing -- does anyone on Earth expect McCain to take that state? A Democrat may need New York to win, but a Democrat win there is also a really safe bet. No one who lives in the real world would argue that Obama would lose the Empire State...

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