Political Wire:
Though many analysts predict Democratic losses in next year's midterm elections, The Fix looks at the five House seats most likely to switch party next year and finds three of them are currently Republican seats while just two are Democratic seats.
Republican seats most likely to flip: IL-10, NY-23 and LA-2
Democratic seats most likely to flip: NM-2 and LA-3
Five seats (and the most vulnerable at that) may not be the best sample in the world, but taken as a percentage of each party's seats as a whole, Republicans make up the vast majority of this list. While Democrats can almost guarantee that .008% of their 257 seats will flip, Republicans more double that percentage with .014% of 178 GOP House seats set to change hands. Tiny percentages both, but food for thought nonetheless. The GOP would need to take 40 seats to win back the House of Representatives.
Going over to CQ Politics house race ratings, we see that in 257 races, seats are either safe, leaning, or favoring Democrats. Those same ratings apply to 175 seats for Republicans.
Again, people saying we're heading into a big Republican year have to be speculating. The evidence just isn't there.
