A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll on healthcare reform may have produced the most politically unhelpful numbers ever. According to MSNBC's First Read:
Pro-reformers argued that it showed that there was no electoral incentive for or against voting for the bill -- a sort of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" argument. It's a good argument, but it ignored what I thought was an obvious question; how many of those saying they wouldn't vote for someone who helped pass this bill wouldn't have voted for them anyway? There's nothing in this poll that suggests these are undecided voters.
More helpful polling comes from Public Policy Polling:
The fact of the matter is that these aren't undecided voters either. But if only 3% of liberals are against the bill, then passing the bill makes the base happy. We can worry about swing voters all we want, but if the base isn't happy, the base stays home on election day. This is true of either party. If you want people you know will vote for you to show up at the polls, then you pass this bill.
According to the poll, if their congressman votes with Republicans to defeat the bill, 34% say they would be less likely to re-elect that member, 31% say they would be more likely to vote for him/her, and 34% say it makes no difference.
However, if their congressman votes with Democrats to pass the legislation, 36% say they would be less likely to re-elect that member, 28% say they would be more likely to vote for him/her, and 34% say it makes no difference.
Pro-reformers argued that it showed that there was no electoral incentive for or against voting for the bill -- a sort of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" argument. It's a good argument, but it ignored what I thought was an obvious question; how many of those saying they wouldn't vote for someone who helped pass this bill wouldn't have voted for them anyway? There's nothing in this poll that suggests these are undecided voters.
More helpful polling comes from Public Policy Polling:
Dennis Kucinich’s flip on the health care vote this morning is symbolic of a broader shift among liberals. Last month 73% said they supported the plan with 19% opposed. Now 89% say they support the plan with only 3% opposed. Whether it’s because of the President’s increasing visibility on the issue or because liberals finally decided the current bill is as good as they’re going to get and better than nothing, there’s been a big rise in support since early February.
The shift has come completely with Democratic voters. A month ago 39% of independents said they supported it, now 40% do. A month ago 10% of Republicans said the supported it, and that’s now actually down to 8%. But Democratic support has risen from 63% to 76% in the last month. Obama seems to have succeeded in better unifying the party around his goals.
The fact of the matter is that these aren't undecided voters either. But if only 3% of liberals are against the bill, then passing the bill makes the base happy. We can worry about swing voters all we want, but if the base isn't happy, the base stays home on election day. This is true of either party. If you want people you know will vote for you to show up at the polls, then you pass this bill.
