Mitt Romney leads President Obama by a margin of seven points among likely voters, 52 percent to 45 percent, according to a new daily tracking poll by Gallup.
Per TPM’sPollTracker average, Romney leads Obama 48.4 percent to 47.3 percent.
Pay attention to that last sentence; national polling is in such flux that a 7-point jump in one poll means a one point lead in the average. If you check over at RealClearPolitics, you see the same story — Romney up one. There’s a lot of noise out there right now and averages tend to limit it. For all intents and purposes, the national race is tied.
Keep your eyes on the state level and keep in mind that Team Romney’s still trying to figure out how to pull off a win without Ohio. Their confidence in a win seems pretty shaky.