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Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Why no one should get too excited about tightening polling in Pennsylvania

So far, two polls have shown President Obama losing ground in Pennsylvania. The most recent is a Quinnipiac poll showing Obama ahead there 50%-46%, following a Muhlenberg College poll that showed a nearly identical 49%-45% split. The media is just super-excited about this, because it’d be huge news if Pennsylvania came into play, but the fact is they’re the only ones. Even the Romney campaign can’t bring themselves to get overly excited about this.

Politico:

Asked Monday if there’s a path for Romney to take the Electoral College vote without Ohio, a top Romney aide responded that the Republican presidential nominee could still win by capturing Wisconsin and cleaning up across the rest of the swing states.

But, the adviser said: “I won’t blow smoke at you with Pennsylvania and Michigan, even though there are polls showing that they’re in sight.”

“I absolutely believe they’re close,” the adviser said. “It’s just, to go in, to move 3 points in Pennsylvania is different than moving 3 points in New Hampshire.”

The piece goes on to note that trying to flip Pennsylvania “is a costly enterprise that has not paid off for any Republican presidential candidate in almost a quarter-century.” So no. The map is what the map is: Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Pennsylvania is just wishful thinking by the media.

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