Why no one should get too excited about tightening polling in Pennsylvania

So far, two polls have shown President Obama losing ground in Pennsylvania. The most recent is a Quinnipiac poll showing Obama ahead there 50%-46%, following a Muhlenberg College poll that showed a nearly identical 49%-45% split. The media is just super-excited about this, because it’d be huge news if Pennsylvania came into play, but the fact is they’re the only ones. Even the Romney campaign can’t bring themselves to get overly excited about this.

Politico:

Asked Monday if there’s a path for Romney to take the Electoral College vote without Ohio, a top Romney aide responded that the Republican presidential nominee could still win by capturing Wisconsin and cleaning up across the rest of the swing states.

But, the adviser said: “I won’t blow smoke at you with Pennsylvania and Michigan, even though there are polls showing that they’re in sight.”

“I absolutely believe they’re close,” the adviser said. “It’s just, to go in, to move 3 points in Pennsylvania is different than moving 3 points in New Hampshire.”

The piece goes on to note that trying to flip Pennsylvania “is a costly enterprise that has not paid off for any Republican presidential candidate in almost a quarter-century.” So no. The map is what the map is: Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Pennsylvania is just wishful thinking by the media.

Pennsylvania remains a democracy — for now

ThinkProgress:

Last month, a Pennsylvania trial judge upheld that state’s Voter ID law, in an opinion that relied at least in part on Nineteenth Century precedent which claimed that vote suppressing laws may be permissible to protect against ‘rogues,’ ‘strumpets,’ and ‘wandering arabs.’ Today, the state supreme court vacated that order, noting that the law is not living up to its own promises of ensuring voters will have access to ID:

[T]he Law contemplates that the primary form of photo identification to be used by voters is a Department of Transportation (PennDOT) driver’s license or the non-driver equivalent provided under Section 1510(b) of the Vehicle Code. Furthermore, the Law specifically requires that – notwithstanding provisions of Section 1510(b) relating to the issuance and content of the cards – PennDOT shall issue them at no cost … . As such, the Law establishes a policy of liberal access to Section 1510(b) identification cards.

However, as implementation of the Law has proceeded, PennDOT – apparently for good reason – has refused to allow such liberal access. Instead, the Department continues to vet applicants for Section 1510(b) cards through an identification process that Commonwealth officials appear to acknowledge is a rigorous one. Generally, the process requires the applicant to present a birth certificate with a raised seal (or a document considered to be an equivalent), a social security card, and two forms of documentation showing current residency. The reason why PennDOT will not implement the Law as written is that the Section 1510(b) driver’s license equivalent is a secure form of identification, which may be used, for example, to board commercial aircraft.

The Department of State has realized, and the Commonwealth parties have candidly conceded, that the Law is not being implemented according to its terms… . Overall, we are confronted with an ambitious effort on the part of the General Assembly to bring the new identification procedure into effect within a relatively short timeframe and an implementation process which has by no means been seamless in light of the serious operational constraints faced by the executive branch. Given this state of affairs, we are not satisfied with a mere predictive judgment based primarily on the assurances of government officials, even though we have no doubt they are proceeding in good faith.

State Republicans will likely try to put a happy face on this, but it really is a loss for them.

News Roundup for 3/19/12

Tom Corbett: Fighting truth, justice, and the American Way

-Headline of the Day-
"112% wrong in Pennsylvania."

When last we saw Pennsylvania Space Cadet Gov. Tom Corbett, he was handily defeating the evil forces of Ladies Who Get Abortions. Armed only with his slow wit and keen sense of the exact wrong thing to say, resourceful Tom fended off critics of his ultrasound bill by telling them, "I don't know how you make anybody watch. You just have to close your eyes" -- easily to proving to one and all that he has absolutely no understanding of the basis of that criticism.

Now, we find Cadet Corbett fighting another ruthless and villainous foe -- Citizens Who Want to Vote. When some of this ravenous horde asked why a voter ID law he signed was necessary, he let them have it. "When some of the precincts come in with a 112 percent reporting you have to scratch your head and say how does that happen?" he declared.

Where does this figure come from? Straight out of Corbett's trusty Astro-Utility Butt. Notes Steve Benen, "Corbett was Pennsylvania's state Attorney General, and before that, a U.S. Attorney. If he had found evidence of such obvious fraud, he had opportunities to investigate and prosecute. That never happened, because the fraud never took place."

Pennsylvania Space Cadet Gov. Tom Corbett; fighting truth wherever it rears its ugly head! (Maddow Blog)


-GOP strikes another righteous blow in the War on Women-



Now run along and knit baby clothes or needlepoint a pie or whatever the hell it is you women do when you're not eating fistfuls of abortion pills. (GoComics)


-Bonus HotD-
"Santorum Accepts Blessing After Pastor Tells All Buddhists, Muslims to Git Outta US."

Greenwell Springs (LA) Baptist Church pastor and Santorum-backer Dennis Terry says that America is Christians only and everyone else has to get the hell out! And Rick's just super-happy to take his endorsement and his magic blessing.

Can we get some media over  here to ask him if he agrees with Pastor Terry?

No? OK, under the rug it goes. (Wonkette, with video)

News Roundup for 3/15/12

PA Gov. Tom Corbett

-Headline of the Day-
"Dems Hammer PA Governor Over Ultrasound Comments."

Let's go straight to the money shot on this one: "I don’t know how you make anybody watch. You just have to close your eyes."

That's Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett, who is both a Republican and a famous Space Cadet. What Cadet Tom is talking about here is Pennsylvania's ultrasound bill, which would force women to undergo an unnecessary procedure (at heir own expense) in order to get an abortion.

See, the thinking behind ultrasound bills is pretty simple: women are stupid. Women get abortions because they have absolutely no idea what's up in there. So, if you show them a picture of it, maybe they won't have an abortion.

"If you’re a woman who opposes mandatory ultrasounds, Republican Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett has a suggestion for you: ‘You just have to close your eyes,’" writes the Democratic Governors Association. "‘Close your eyes?’ Does Governor Corbett have no shame?"

He's a Republican. Since when have they known shame? (Talking Points Memo)


-More ultrasound ultra-fun-



Remember ladies, having government poke around in your uterus is liberty! (Truthdig)


-Bonus HotD-
"At NCAA Tournament, Southern Miss Band Chants ‘Where’s Your Green Card?’ At Hispanic Kansas State Player."

Because they're classy like that. (ThinkProgress, with video)

Stories to Watch: 11/16/11

The Herman Cain fiasco is starting to die down, so I pulled the Google feed for him from the Superfeed. Instead, I've added "Wisconsin Recall," which is now officially under way. I'm also working on a Twitter Newsroom, because Twitter is a great way to catch news for ongoing events like election nights, debates, breaking news, etc. So keep an eye out for that. It should be up as early as tonight. No promises there, though.


Speaking of recall target Gov. Scott Walker, he's unveiled his new jobs plan -- abstinence-only education. And people wonder why we'd want to recall this clown.


In bad news for Walker on the recall front, a new poll shows a majority support it. This is a change from previous polls, which showed the larger percentages opposing a recall, but with most voting against Walker anyway. Confusing, I know, but that's the way they panned out.


Oh, and just how good is twitter for following developing stories? This good.


The Secret Service searched the Occupy DC encampment for a man who's suspected of taking potshots at the White House. Authorities went through "searching for a so-called terrorist who shot at the White House, with no warrant, they went into everybody’s tents," said one protester. While there's no reason why Occupy DCers should be above suspicion in a case like this, anyone should find warrantless searches of personal property disturbing.


And, of course, the search of Occupy DC came up empty. The mentally ill suspect, Oscar Ramiro Ortega-Hernandez, was finally arrested at a hotel in Pennsylvania.


On the campaign bus with Herman Cain.


Some Republicans are starting to get the crazy idea that most of their party's presidential candidates are dumber than sacks of doorknobs.


Finally, House Republicans' hearing on a doomed anti-piracy bill was a disgusting, embarrassing sham. "[Google's copyright lawyer] was the only witness invited who opposed the legislation," reports Politico, "causing critics to charge that the hearing was stacked." The Soviets had fairer show trials.

Related articles

• White House Shooting Suspect Arrested (abcnews.go.com)
• Majority Say Walker Should Be Recalled (politicalwire.com)
• Wisconsin's Walker takes on critics as recall effort begins - Reuters (reuters.com)
• Small Business Owner On Why Walker Must Go (npr.org)

News Roundup for 6/6/11

Fighting the scourge of Obamacare

-Headline of the day-
"Santorum: D-Day Troops Fought For Health Care Freedom."

Rick Santorum officially announced that he'd be running for president today. Speaking at a rally in Pennsylvania -- where at least one attendee passed out from all the excitement -- Rick said that Obama is basically Mussolini and that soldiers in WWII fought to defend Paul Ryan's Medicare-slaying.

"Average Americans. The very Americans that our government now, and this president, does not trust a to make decision on your health care plan," Santorum said. "Those Americans risked everything so they could make that decision on their health care plan."

That's right, WWII was a battle over big government healthcare -- which I guess Hitler was for. And then all those vets came home and found themselves covered under the big gummint GI Bill and the Veterans Administration.

It must've been a bitter, bitter pill to swallow. (Talking Points Memo)


-Patrioticker than you!-
Republicans love America...


Click to embiggen

...it's just that "democracy" thing they've got a problem with. (McClatchy)


-Bonus HotD-
"Andrew Breitbart of Big Government Hijacks Anthony Weiner Press Conference."

What a tremendous ego this dick has, huh? (Village Voice)

Griper Blade: Shameless in Pennsylvania

Barack Obama is secretly a Muslim. Barack Obama is secretly socialist. Barack Obama secretly subscribes to "black liberation theology." Barack Obama's secretly not a US citizen. Barack Obama is secretly a terrorist. Barack Obama is secretly the antiChrist.

Just when you thought the fearmongering couldn't get any more stupid, Pennsylvania voters received an e-mail telling them that Barack Obama is secretly Hitler.

A new e-mail making the rounds among Jewish voters in Pennsylvania this week falsely alleged that Mr. Obama “taught members of Acorn to commit voter registration fraud,’’ and equated a vote for Senator Barack Obama with the “tragic mistake” of their Jewish ancestors, who “ignored the warning signs in the 1930’s and 1940’s.”

At first blush, it was typical of the sorts of e-mails floating around with false, unsubstantiated and incendiary claims this year.

But where most of the attack e-mails against Mr. Obama have been mostly either anonymous or from people outside of mainstream politics, this one had an unusually official provenance: It was sponsored by the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s “Victory 2008” committee.

The email was "signed" with the names of prominent McCain supporters. It's since been pulled and the Pennsylvania Republican Party as repudiated it, firing the strategist who helped draft it. The important word there is probably "helped." He wasn't the only one involved, he was just the only one fired. Someone had to take the blame and it was this strategist, Bryan Rudnick, who was going to do it...

[CLICK TO READ FULL POST]

McCain Puts His Chips on PA, WI, and MN

clipped from www.politico.com Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says.  Those were considered swing states in 2000 and 2004, but George W. Bush lost them both times.  “Our ability to pick off one of those three states is where our fortunes are largely held,” a McCain official said. “These are states where Barack Obama is on the defense.”  McCain has very limited ways to win, with no room for error. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) still has many routes to the White House and so can afford to campaign on a much broader playing field.  McCain figures that winning one of those three big remaining swing states, plus those he considers safe, would put him 10 shy of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.  “We can dig up an additional 10 electoral votes in Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire,” the official said.

The problem with this strategy is that it's insane. Minnesota, for example, is so far from competitive that Politico's swing state map doesn't even list it anymore.

I went to Electoral-Vote.com and got these numbers -- McCain is the lower number in each case:

Minnesota - 54%-43%
Pennsylvania - 50%-43%
Wisconsin - 49%-43%

Maybe PA and WI make sense, but MN? Seriously, I don't see the reasoning.

Poll: Obama Leads Wisconsin

clipped from strategicvision.biz Below are the results of a three-day poll of likely voters in the state of Wisconsin. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Wisconsin, aged 18+, and conducted September 26-28, 2008 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. 1. If the election for President were held today would you support the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joseph Biden or the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin? Obama/Biden 49% McCain/Palin 40% Other 2% Undecided 9% 6. Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain? Barack Obama 56% John McCain 37% Undecided 7%

This one's a little personal. If I see one more electoral map that shows the Badger state as a toss-up, I'm going to hurt someone. Wisconsin isn't going McCain, it hasn't gone GOP since the Reagan landslide.

Other fun results; Bush is really unpopular here -- only a 15% job approval rating. More evidence that McCain's done here.

He's still spending money here, though. You can't watch TV for an hour without seeing a McCain ad.

Glad to see him blowing that cash on a lost cause.

Obama Makes Gains in Battlegrounds

clipped from politicalwire.com The latest CNN/Time polls in five crucial battleground states suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making some major gains over rival Sen. John McCain. Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47% Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43% Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48% Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47% Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44% A Quinnipiac poll released earlier today shows Obama ahead in the three big battleground states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

McCain's constant stunt-politicking fails to pay off. In fact, it has the opposite of the desired effect. Can Sarah Palin pull this out of the dumper tomorrow night?

You're kidding, right?