Bachmann Gunning to Shoot Herself in Foot

Wow, talk about just desserts -- turns out batshit-crazy Minnesota Republican Michele Bachmann has been gunning to eliminate her own seat.

Talking Points Memo:

Last year, Bachmann repeatedly said she would defy the Census by not completely filling out the information on the forms, but would instead only give the number of people in her household. She said that Census data was used to conduct the 1940's Japanese-American internment, and warned that the government was seeking togather information about people's mental health. But as far as we can tell, her last anti-Census public statement was in August.

So why has Shelly shut up with the census fearmongering lately? Because the census is used to determine the number of reps a state has. If states population growth is too low to justify the number of representatives, the state loses a seat -- and, in Minnesota's case, guess whose seat that would be?

The really fun fact, as I've learned from Minnesota experts, is that Bachmann's district would likely be the first to go if the state lost a seat. The other seats are all fairly regular-shaped, logical districts built around identifiable regions of the state (Minneapolis, St. Paul, the Iron Range, and so on). Bachmann's district is made of what's left over after such a process, twisting and turning from a small strip of the Wisconsin border and curving deep into the middle of the state. As such, the obvious course of action if the state loses a seat is to split her district up among its neighbors.

So gone are all the "gummint's gonna use the census to put you into camps!" talk, because it was all a load in the first place and now it's come back to bite her in the ass.

In MN, It's Still the Al Franken Decade

clipped from www.startribune.com DFL U.S. Senate candidate Al Franken has moved into his first solid lead over incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll. The survey, conducted Tuesday through Thursday by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among 1,084 likely Minnesota voters, shows Franken leading Coleman 43 to 34 percent. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley is supported by 18 percent of respondents. Franken’s lead is outside the poll’s margin of sampling error, plus or minus 3.7 points.

The poll isn't without controversy, however. A SurveyUSA poll finds almost the opposite, with Coleman leading Franken by 10.

Still, there's something hinky about SUSA's polling in Minnesota. It's been in wild disagreement with most other polls. Coleman points to SUSA's numbers, but I doubt that -- in his little heart of hearts -- he finds much comfort in them.

"DFL" is Democratic-Farmer-Labor party, BTW. The official name of the state Democratic party.

McCain Puts His Chips on PA, WI, and MN

clipped from www.politico.com Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says.  Those were considered swing states in 2000 and 2004, but George W. Bush lost them both times.  “Our ability to pick off one of those three states is where our fortunes are largely held,” a McCain official said. “These are states where Barack Obama is on the defense.”  McCain has very limited ways to win, with no room for error. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) still has many routes to the White House and so can afford to campaign on a much broader playing field.  McCain figures that winning one of those three big remaining swing states, plus those he considers safe, would put him 10 shy of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.  “We can dig up an additional 10 electoral votes in Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire,” the official said.

The problem with this strategy is that it's insane. Minnesota, for example, is so far from competitive that Politico's swing state map doesn't even list it anymore.

I went to Electoral-Vote.com and got these numbers -- McCain is the lower number in each case:

Minnesota - 54%-43%
Pennsylvania - 50%-43%
Wisconsin - 49%-43%

Maybe PA and WI make sense, but MN? Seriously, I don't see the reasoning.

Poll: Obama Leads Wisconsin

clipped from strategicvision.biz Below are the results of a three-day poll of likely voters in the state of Wisconsin. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Wisconsin, aged 18+, and conducted September 26-28, 2008 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. 1. If the election for President were held today would you support the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joseph Biden or the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin? Obama/Biden 49% McCain/Palin 40% Other 2% Undecided 9% 6. Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain? Barack Obama 56% John McCain 37% Undecided 7%

This one's a little personal. If I see one more electoral map that shows the Badger state as a toss-up, I'm going to hurt someone. Wisconsin isn't going McCain, it hasn't gone GOP since the Reagan landslide.

Other fun results; Bush is really unpopular here -- only a 15% job approval rating. More evidence that McCain's done here.

He's still spending money here, though. You can't watch TV for an hour without seeing a McCain ad.

Glad to see him blowing that cash on a lost cause.

Obama Makes Gains in Battlegrounds

clipped from politicalwire.com The latest CNN/Time polls in five crucial battleground states suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making some major gains over rival Sen. John McCain. Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47% Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43% Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48% Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47% Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44% A Quinnipiac poll released earlier today shows Obama ahead in the three big battleground states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

McCain's constant stunt-politicking fails to pay off. In fact, it has the opposite of the desired effect. Can Sarah Palin pull this out of the dumper tomorrow night?

You're kidding, right?

Police Raid Homes in Twin Cities Prior to RNC

clipped from www.salon.com Protesters here in Minneapolis have been targeted by a series of highly intimidating, sweeping police raids across the city, involving teams of 25-30 officers in riot gear, with semi-automatic weapons drawn, entering homes of those suspected of planning protests, handcuffing and forcing them to lay on the floor, while law enforcement officers searched the homes, seizing computers, journals, and political pamphlets. Last night, members of the St. Paul police department and the Ramsey County sheriff's department handcuffed, photographed and detained dozens of people meeting at a public venue to plan a demonstration, charging them with no crime other than "fire code violations," and early this morning, the Sheriff's department sent teams of officers into at least four Minneapolis area homes where suspected protesters were staying. Here is the first of the videos, from the house that had just been raided: Here is the video we took from the second house as the raid was occurring.

The above is from Glenn Greenwald. As is always the case with Greenwald's posts, it's worth reading in its entirety.

While it seems at first read to be a preemptive attempt to stop protests, a moment's thought should tell you that it guarantees them. In fact, it may even provoke violence.

While I hesitate to say that the St. Paul police are trying to ensure riots for the networks, I can't say it doesn't look like they are.

GOP Convention Lacks Enthusiasm

clipped from rawstory.com This year, Republicans remain acutely mindful of the challenge they face: How best to showcase McCain, an unpopular party's aging, less-than telegenic standard-bearer, against Obama's soaring oratory and historic status as a major party's first black nominee. Still, the enthusiasm gap between the two events is already noticeable. Democrats have already signed up 22,000 volunteers for their convention, while the St. Paul gathering has attracted just 10,000. GOP organizers insist they have work for only 10,000 volunteers and are more than happy to stick with that number. Then there's the problem of President Bush, whose popularity, slipping for months, has tanked along with the flagging economy. The convention Web site bears little mention of the president's name; its home page quotes McCain saying he is proud to be nominated by "the party of Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan."

I wonder if they'll realize that forced enthusiasm looks even worse than no enthusiasm? The piece also tells us that while Obama can expect good coverage during bona fide swing state Colorado's DNC, McCain's down double-digits in Minnesota -- happy photo ops aren't nearly as likely as big protests.