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Wednesday, November 07, 2012

How accurate were pollsters in 2012?

The center line is absolute accuracy and the dots are how over/under the polls were, courtesy of a study conducted by Fordham University. So top polls? YouGov, PPP, Ipsos/Reuters, and DailyKos/SEIU/PPP.

The two poll truthers where hanging their hats on — Reuters and Gallup — were among the worst. Both need to rethink their likely voter method. They wound up undersampling Democrats by at least 6 points.

PPP’s Tom Jensen told New York magazine, “We just projected that African-American, Hispanic, and young voter turnout would be as high in 2012 as it was in 2008, and we weighted our polls accordingly. When you look at polls that succeeded and those that failed that was the difference.”

Say, where’s that poll truther troll I had a few days back? Seems to me he’d be interested in all this.

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