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Wednesday, May 30, 2007

'08 GOP Nomination Process Looks Like a Mess

The political right seems to be in complete disarray lately -- and it's being reflected in the race for the 2008 Republican party nomination. First up, a threat of a split.

Raw Story:

With former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading in many national polls for the Republican Party nomination in 2008, some conservative groups are looking for ways to defeat him. One conservative activist has even threatened a religion-focused third party challenger if he wins the nomination next year, according to a blog post at the Christian Broadcasting Network.

"From the moment Giuliani is nominated -- if they are stupid enough to do it next February -- a third party will be started emphasizing pro-family issues and conservative economic and foreign policies, and probably within a decade or two that 3rd party will be the dominant party along with the pro-abortion and left-wing Democrat Party," according to an e-mail written by an anonymous, prominent conservative activist. Excerpts of the e-mail were posted by David Brody, CBN News's Senior National Correspondent.


I have my doubts about the 'the dominant party' part, but I'd welcome a third party candidate in '08. It'd guarantee a Democratic president.

Meanwhile, those who aren't busy freaking out that Rudy might get the nod are looking to the space marked 'none of the above.'

Associated Press:

Republican Fred Thompson, a former Tennessee senator and "Law & Order" actor, is methodically moving ahead with a likely presidential bid, several officials with knowledge of the plans said Wednesday.

An all-but-declared candidate for months, Thompson will establish an official organization next week to weigh a White House bid while launching his first major fundraising effort. He also may visit early primary states in late June and could officially enter the race as early as the first week in July, according to the officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the plans were not public.

Despite the movement, they cautioned that Thompson has made no final decision about whether to run or where and when to get in the race should he decide to go forward.


I still say Thompson's not going to run, but I could always be wrong. If he did, he'd enter the race with insanely high expectations from the right -- expectations he couldn't possibly live up to. If he gets in, he'd only manage to disillusion and disappoint. He's not the man that Republican voters fantasize him to be and they'd learn that eventually. He's not actually the guy from Law & Order.

What's happening here is that GOP voters feel screwed. A CBS/NYT poll (see chart) shows that 575 of GOP primary voters don't like anyone running, compared to only 35% of dem voters. Maybe they want the guy who'll 'fix the party,' I don't know. But there's no one out there now who's getting the base all wound up.

Unless things change dramatically (and, to be sure, there's no reason to believe they won't), Republicans would be wiser to worry about people staying home than about people voting third party.

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