Typical Diebold Machine
It wasn't the headline that grabbed my attention, although it's pretty good (Say What?! The Straw Poll Explained, ABC News). It was the subheader that got me -- Unscientific State Poll Holds Tremendous Clout in Presidential Election.
Kinda true, kinda not so true. In the best case, the Iowa Straw Poll is somewhat indicative. In 1999 Bush won, but Malcolm Forbes -- who could not possibly have won the presidency -- came in second. In retrospect, winning might seem significant, but coming in second didn't mean a damned thing.
This year, the 'tremendous clout' of the straw poll has been extremely diluted. The only frontrunner actually participating is Mitt Romney. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have decided to skip it. Fred Thompson, still playing the 'draft me' game and undeclared, is also sitting it out. Everyone's prediction is that you can count on Romney winning it and then write it off as meaningless...
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