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Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Griper Blade: Statistical Soup

It's not a prestigious poll or a poll conducted by a giant cable news network. But it's a typical poll. An Austin, Texas TV channel finds pretty much nothing.

KVUE’s latest Belo Texas poll shows voter turnout will be key for Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama -- the democratic winner is anyone’s guess.

Voters decide who they prefer for president Tuesday and according to the latest poll, Clinton lead Obama by just one point -- 46 percent to 45 percent -- both numbers within the margin of error.


Neck and neck, anyone's game, a real nailbiter.

Except that's not how most news outlets are reporting polls. KVUE mentions the margin of error in the second paragraph -- most news outlets don't mention them at all. Other outlets tell you that Clinton's ahead in one poll, behind in another, while the margin of error renders these assessments meaningless.

The worst offender may be CNN, with a statistical monstrosity they call "the poll of polls." They jam together entirely different polls asking entirely different questions of entirely different demographics selected in entirely different ways for entirely different reasons and present this mathematical mishmash as if it meant a damned thing...

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