Griper Blade: Swing State? Sure Doesn't Look That Way

The swing states aren't looking quite as swingy lately. A new Quinnipiac/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll shows Barack Obama taking four of them if the elections were held today. In fact, his lead in two of those states -- Minnesota and Wisconsin -- is big enough that calling them swing states is kind of a joke. These look pretty solid.

In Colorado, Obama leads 49% - 44%. In Michigan, it's 48% - 42%. Minnesota's 54% - 37%. Wisconsin breaks down as 52% - 39%. Needless to say, I'm pretty pleased with my fellow cheeseheads. The proper response from Team McCain to these numbers should be "Yikes!"

Wisconsin's swing state status has always been a little iffy to me. The last time a Republican took the Badger State was in 1984, when Reagan took it in his 49-state landslide over Walter Mondale. That's not to say that Republicans haven't done well here -- Bush lost to Gore by just 5,708 votes out of 2.6 million. Kerry won by 11,384 votes out of 3 million. Wisconsin is a very purple state, but national Republicans just can't seem to break the majority. A very rural state, Wisconsin politics are still dominated by its two largest cities, Madison and Milwaukee, The more conservative Fox River Valley, a third urban area that includes Green Bay, has been the Republican hope in recent elections -- Bush campaigned there almost exclusively in '04 -- but there just aren't enough votes up there to swing the election their way. Almost, but not quite. The two biggest cities are blue, blue, blue -- in fact, Madison is famously (some would say infamously) liberal. As swing states go, Wisconsin only seems to swing left...

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